Mortality prediction models in the adult critically ill: A scoping review

Abstract

BACKGROUND: Mortality prediction models are applied in the intensive care unit (ICU) to stratify patients into different risk categories and to facilitate benchmarking. To ensure that the correct prediction models are applied for these purposes, the best performing models must be identified. As a first step, we aimed to establish a systematic review of mortality prediction models in critically ill patients. METHODS: Mortality prediction models were searched in four databases using the following criteria: developed for use in adult ICU patients in high-income countries, with mortality as primary or secondary outcome. Characteristics and performance measures of the models were summarized. Performance was presented in terms of discrimination, calibration and overall performance measures presented in the original publication. RESULTS: (4.7%). CONCLUSIONS: Mortality prediction models have varying methodology, and validation and performance of individual models differ. External validation by the original researchers is often lacking and head-to-head comparisons are urgently needed to identify the best performing mortality prediction models for guiding clinical care and research in different settings and populations.

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