Hemogram data as a tool for decision-making in COVID-19 management: applications to resource scarcity scenarios

Abstract

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 pandemics has challenged emergency response systems worldwide, with widespread reports of essential services breakdown and collapse of health care structure. A critical element involves essential workforce management since current protocols recommend release from duty for symptomatic individuals, including essential personnel. Testing capacity is also problematic in several countries, where diagnosis demand outnumbers available local testing capacity. PURPOSE: This work describes a machine learning model derived from hemogram exam data performed in symptomatic patients and how they can be used to predict qRT-PCR test results. METHODS: probabilities allow fine-tuning of the model, according to actual prediction context. RESULTS: of 0.001. Regarding background scarcity context, resources allocation can be significantly improved when model-based patient selection is observed, compared to random choice. CONCLUSIONS: Machine learning models can be derived from widely available, quick, and inexpensive exam data in order to predict qRT-PCR results used in COVID-19 diagnosis. These models can be used to assist strategic decision-making in resource scarcity scenarios, including personnel shortage, lack of medical resources, and testing insufficiency.

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