An automated approach to extracting positive and negative clinical research results

Abstract

Failure is common in clinical trials since the successful failures presented in negative results always indicate the ways that should not be taken. In this paper, we proposed an automated approach to extracting positive and negative clinical research results by introducing a PICOE (Population, Intervention, Comparation, Outcome, and Effect) framework to represent randomized controlled trials (RCT) reports, where E indicates the effect between a specific I and O. We developed a pipeline to extract and assign the corresponding statistical effect to a specific I-O pair from natural language RCT reports. The extraction models achieved a high degree of accuracy for ICO and E descriptive words extraction through two rounds of training. By defining a threshold of p-value, we find in all Covid-19 related intervention-outcomes pairs with statistical tests, negative results account for nearly 40%. We believe that this observation is noteworthy since they are extracted from the published literature, in which there is an inherent risk of reporting bias, preferring to report positive results rather than negative results. We provided a tool to systematically understand the current level of clinical evidence by distinguishing negative results from the positive results.

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