Machine learning for longitudinal mortality risk prediction in patients with malignant neoplasm in São Paulo, Brazil

Abstract

Artificial intelligence is becoming an important diagnostic and prognostic tool in recent years, as machine learning algorithms have been shown to improve clinical decision-making. These algorithms will have some of their most important applications in developing regions with restricted data collection, but their performance under this condition is still widely unknown. We analyzed longitudinal data from São Paulo, Brazil, to develop machine learning algorithms to predict the risk of death in patients with cancer. We tested different algorithms using nine separate model structures. Considering the area under the ROC curve (AUC-ROC), we obtained values of 0.946 for the general model, 0.945 for the model with the five main cancers, 0.899 for bronchial and lung cancer, 0.947 for breast cancer, 0.866 for stomach cancer, 0.872 for colon cancer, 0.923 for rectum cancer, 0.955 for prostate cancer, and 0.917 for uterine cervix cancer. Our results indicate the potential of building models for predicting mortality risk in cancer patients in developing regions using only routinely-collected data.

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