Establishing and clinically validating a machine learning model for predicting unplanned reoperation risk in colorectal cancer

Abstract

BACKGROUND: Colorectal cancer significantly impacts global health, with unplanned reoperations post-surgery being key determinants of patient outcomes. Existing predictive models for these reoperations lack precision in integrating complex clinical data. AIM: To develop and validate a machine learning model for predicting unplanned reoperation risk in colorectal cancer patients. METHODS: = 1984) according to unplanned reoperation occurrence. Patients were also divided into a training group and a validation group (7:3 ratio). We used three different machine learning methods to screen characteristic variables. A nomogram was created based on multifactor logistic regression, and the model performance was assessed using receiver operating characteristic curve, calibration curve, Hosmer-Lemeshow test, and decision curve analysis. The risk scores of the two groups were calculated and compared to validate the model. RESULTS: < 0.05): Prognostic Nutritional Index value, history of laparotomy, hypertension, or stroke, hypoproteinemia, age, tumor-node-metastasis staging, surgical time, gender, and American Society of Anesthesiologists classification. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis showed that the model had good discrimination and clinical utility. CONCLUSION: This study used a machine learning approach to build a model that accurately predicts the risk of postoperative unplanned reoperation in patients with colorectal cancer, which can improve treatment decisions and prognosis.

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