Predicting Survivability of Cancer Patients with Metastatic Patterns Using Explainable AI

Abstract

Abstract Cancer remains a leading global health challenge and a major cause of mortality. This study leverages machine learning (ML) to predict the survivability of cancer patients with metastatic patterns using the comprehensive MSK-MET dataset, which includes genomic and clinical data from 25,775 patients across 27 cancer types. We evaluated five ML models-XGBoost, Näıve Bayes, Decision Tree, Logistic Regression, and Random Fores using hyperparameter tuning and grid search. XGBoost emerged as the best performer with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.82. To enhance model interpretability, SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) were applied, revealing key predictors such as metastatic site count, tumor mutation burden, fraction of genome altered, and organ-specific metastases. Further survival analysis using Kaplan-Meier curves, Cox Proportional Hazards models, and XGBoost Survival Analysis identified significant predictors of patient outcomes, offering actionable insights for clinicians. These findings could aid in personalized prognosis and treatment planning, ultimately improving patient care.

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