An overview of model uncertainty and variability in LLM-based sentiment analysis: challenges, mitigation strategies, and the role of explainability

Abstract

Large Language Models (LLMs) have significantly advanced sentiment analysis, yet their inherent uncertainty and variability pose critical challenges to achieving reliable and consistent outcomes. This paper systematically explores the Model Variability Problem (MVP) in LLM-based sentiment analysis, characterized by inconsistent sentiment classification, polarization, and uncertainty arising from stochastic inference mechanisms, prompt sensitivity, and biases in training data. We present illustrative examples and two case studies to highlight its impact and analyze the core causes of MVP, discussing a dozen fundamental reasons for model variability. We pay especial atenttion to explainabily, with an analysis of its importance in LLMs from the MVP perspective. In addition, we investigate key challenges and mitigation strategies, paying particular attention to the role of temperature as a driver of output randomness and highlighting the crucial role of explainability in improving transparency and user trust. By providing a structured perspective on stability, reproducibility, and trustworthiness, this study helps develop more reliable, explainable, and robust sentiment analysis models, facilitating their deployment in high-risk domains such as finance, healthcare and policy making, among others.

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