Early Prediction of Cerebral Vasospasm After Aneurysmal Subarachnoid Hemorrhage Using a Machine Learning Model and Interactive Web Application

Abstract

<b>Background:</b> Cerebral vasospasm is a frequent and severe complication after aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH), often causing delayed cerebral ischemia (DCI) and poor outcomes. Despite progress in neurocritical care, early vasospasm prediction after aSAH remains challenging due to its multifactorial nature but is essential for timely intervention. <b>Methods:</b> We retrospectively analyzed 503 consecutive patients with spontaneous subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) treated between 2013 and 2018. Of these, 345 with angiographically confirmed aSAH were included in the primary analysis, and 158 SAH cases in a sensitivity analysis. We extracted demographic, clinical, and imaging parameters including age, sex, Hunt and Hess grade, Fisher scale, aneurysm and treatment features, external ventricular drainage (EVD), and central nervous system (CNS) infection. Seven supervised machine learning (ML) models, including logistic regression and gradient-boosted trees, were trained using nested cross-validation and evaluated by AUC-ROC, AUC-PR, accuracy, precision, sensitivity, specificity, and F1 score. <b>Results:</b> Over half of aSAH patients developed moderate to severe vasospasm. Independent predictors included younger age, higher Hunt and Hess and Fisher grades, and EVD placement (all <i>p</i> < 0.001). Logistic regression achieved the best discrimination (AUC-ROC 0.723), while tree-based models reached higher sensitivity (0.867) at the expense of specificity. Aneurysmal etiology further increased vasospasm risk (OR 4.72). <b>Conclusions:</b> Routinely available clinical and imaging parameters enable reliable ML-based vasospasm prediction after aSAH. Logistic regression provided the best balance between accuracy and interpretability, while tree-based models optimized sensitivity. This web-based, interpretable ML tool-one of the first using routine clinical data-may support the bedside prediction of vasospasm and requires prospective validation.

Ähnliche Arbeiten