Declining cigarette sales and shifts in the US cigarette marketplace from 2016 to 2024: Analysis of market scanner sales data in US convenience stores

Abstract

Changing cigarette sales trends can indicate shifts in tobacco marketing, consumer preferences, and smoker demographics. This study examines trends in US convenience store sales for cigarettes (2016–2024) by brand tier, flavor, and leading brands. Using Nielsen market scanner cigarette data (2016–2024) for US convenience stores, annual market shares and sales trends for each brand tier (premium, value, deep-discount), flavor (menthol, non-menthol), and leading brands were determined. Sales trends were assessed using Joinpoint for average annual percentage changes (AAPCs—primary outcome), with annual percent changes (APCs) describing shorter-term trends. Sales declined from 9.23 to 5.61 billion packs from 2016 to 2024 (AAPC: −5.82% [95% CI: −6.40%, −5.21%]). Premium cigarettes declined more slowly between 2016 and 2021 (APC: −4.22% [95% CI: −5.47%, −1.93%]) than 2021–2024 (APC: −10.78% [95% CI: −15.38%, −8.29%]). Value cigarettes declined steadily (AAPC: −7.54%, [95% CI: −8.56%, −6.49%]). Deep-discount cigarettes were the only segment to grow (AAPC: 5.56% [95% CI: 3.81%, 7.39%]) and decrease in price. Non-menthol cigarettes declined steadily (AAPC: −4.97% [95% CI: −5.43%, −4.51%]). Menthol cigarettes declined slowly between 2016 and 2021 (APC: −2.65% [95% CI: −3.90%, −1.29%]) before rapidly declining (2021–2024 APC: −14.83% [95% CI: −16.94%, −12.13%]). Research assessing potential impacts of the growing deep-discount segment on smoking patterns and health disparities, as well as continued monitoring of menthol cigarettes, is needed. • Deep-discount cigarettes were the only segment with growing sales from 2016 to 2024. • Average pack price decreased only for deep-discount cigarettes. • Menthol cigarette declined rapidly from 2021 to 2024, outpacing non-menthol declines.

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