Generative AI exposure across occupational sectors and changes in unemployment in Sweden

Abstract

This thesis examines whether the development of generative artificial intelligence is associated with changes in average unemployment across occupational sectors in Sweden.Treating the public release of ChatGPT in November 2022 as a common timing event, the study applies a two-way fixed-effects difference-in-differences framework to monthly unemployment data across 22 occupational sectors.Occupational exposure to generative AI is measured using a task-based classification derived from existing literature, distinguishing between sectors with high and low exposure.The main empirical finding is that unemployment increased more on average in occupational sectors classified as highly exposed to generative AI relative to less exposed sectors following November 2022.The estimated difference-in-differences coefficient is statistically significant at the 5 percent level based on a two-sided t-test with standard errors clustered at the occupational-sector level but should be interpreted with caution due to the limited number of clusters and potential heterogeneity across sectors.The findings contribute with post-2022 information from the Swedish labor market to the literature on artificial intelligence and unemployment, suggesting that generative AI may be associated with short-term labor market disruptions, even if long-run productivity gains and task reallocation may offset these impacts.

Ähnliche Arbeiten