Predicting Sequences of Clinical Events by Using a Personalized Temporal Latent Embedding Model

Abstract

As a result of the recent trend towards digitization -- which increasingly affects evidence-based medicine, accountable care, personalized medicine, and medical "Big Data" analysis -- growing amounts of clinical data are becoming available for analysis. In this paper, we follow the idea that one can model clinical processes based on clinical data, which can then be the basis for many useful applications. We model the whole clinical evolution of each individual patient, which is composed of thousands of events such as ordered tests, lab results and diagnoses. Specifically, we base our work on a dataset provided by the Charité University Hospital of Berlin which is composed of patients that suffered from kidney failure and either obtained an organ transplant or are still waiting for one. These patients face a lifelong treatment and periodic visits to the clinic. Our goal is to develop a system to predict the sequence of events recorded in the electronic medical record of each patient, and thus to develop the basis for a future clinical decision support system. For modelling, we use machine learning approaches which are based on a combination of the embedding of entities and events in a multidimensional latent space, in combination with Neural Network predictive models. Similar approaches have been highly successful in statistical models for recommendation systems, language models, and knowledge graphs. We extend existing embedding models to the clinical domain, in particular with respect to temporal sequences, long-term memories and personalization. We compare the performance of our proposed models with standard approaches such as K-nearest neighbors method, Naïve Bayes classifier and Logistic Regression, and obtained favorable results with our proposed model.

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