Dynamic Illness Severity Prediction via Multi-task RNNs for Intensive Care Unit

Abstract

Most of the existing analytics on ICU data mainly focus on mortality risk prediction and phenotyping analysis. However, they have limitations in providing sufficient evidence for decision making in a dynamically changing clinical environment. In this paper, we propose a novel approach that simultaneously analyses different organ systems to predict the illness severity of patients in an ICU, which can intuitively reflect the condition of the patients in a timely fashion. Specifically, we develop a novel deep learning model, namely MTRNN-ATT, which is based on multi-task recurrent neural networks. The physiological features of each organ system in time-series representations are learned by a single long short-term memory unit as a specific task. To utilize the relationships between organ systems, we use a shared LSTM unit to exploit the correlations between different tasks for further performance improvement. Also, we apply an attention mechanism in our deep model to learn the selective features at each stage to achieve better prediction results. We conduct extensive experiments on a real-world clinical dataset (MIMIC-III) to compare our method with many state-of-the-art methods. The experiment results demonstrate that the proposed approach performs better on the prediction tasks of illness severity scores.

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