Prediction of Chronic Disease-Related Inpatient Prolonged Length of Stay Using Machine Learning Algorithms

Abstract

OBJECTIVES: The study aimed to develop and compare predictive models based on supervised machine learning algorithms for predicting the prolonged length of stay (LOS) of hospitalized patients diagnosed with five different chronic conditions. METHODS: An administrative claim dataset (2008-2012) of a regional network of nine hospitals in the Tampa Bay area, Florida, USA, was used to develop the prediction models. Features were extracted from the dataset using the International Classification of Diseases, 9th Revision, Clinical Modification (ICD-9-CM) codes. Five learning algorithms, namely, decision tree C5.0, linear support vector machine (LSVM), k-nearest neighbors, random forest, and multi-layered artificial neural networks, were used to build the model with semi-supervised anomaly detection and two feature selection methods. Issues with the unbalanced nature of the dataset were resolved using the Synthetic Minority Over-sampling Technique (SMOTE). RESULTS: LSVM with wrapper feature selection performed moderately well for all patient cohorts. Using SMOTE to counter data imbalances triggered a tradeoff between the model's sensitivity and specificity, which can be masked under a similar area under the curve. The proposed aggregate rank selection approach resulted in a balanced performing model compared to other criteria. Finally, factors such as comorbidity conditions, source of admission, and payer types were associated with the increased risk of a prolonged LOS. CONCLUSIONS: Prolonged LOS is mostly associated with pre-intraoperative clinical and patient socioeconomic factors. Accurate patient identification with the risk of prolonged LOS using the selected model can provide hospitals a better tool for planning early discharge and resource allocation, thus reducing avoidable hospitalization costs.

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