A Scoping Review of Foresight in Healthcare: The Imperative Need for Medical Futures Studies (Preprint)

Abstract

<sec> <title>BACKGROUND</title> The historical development of futures studies, an interdisciplinary field that focuses on exploring and formulating alternative futures, demonstrates the growing importance of foresight in forming the healthcare landscape. However, only a few attempts to use these foresight methods, despite their extensive range, have attracted the attention of the medical community thus far. </sec> <sec> <title>OBJECTIVE</title> In this study, we aimed at exploring this observation by undertaking the first scoping review to date about the application of foresight methodologies and published foresight projects in healthcare. </sec> <sec> <title>METHODS</title> Using the PRISMA-ScR method, we identified 43 studies which were categorized into five unique themes. </sec> <sec> <title>RESULTS</title> Based on our findings, we conclude that the use of foresight has been successfully demonstrated in a wide range of fields from national strategies and policy-making, to preparing for global threats and technological breakthroughs. However, the low number of sources we could include in this review; and the lack of a systematic approach and guidelines to using foresight in the healthcare domain justify that there is an imperative need for the establishment of 'Medical Futures Studies' as a distinctive sub-discipline within the expansive domains of healthcare, medicine, and life sciences. This subfield would deal with emerging technological trends, policy considerations, and proactive anticipation and mitigation of potential challenges. </sec> <sec> <title>CONCLUSIONS</title> Futures studies have the potential to greatly advance medical science by filling a critical gap in advancing democratic participation to accomplish interdisciplinary dialogue and shaping alternative futures. Launching a dedicated scientific journal in medical futures studies to foster a new research community; appointing dedicated futurists in decision-making and national strategy; and teaching basic futures research methods in the medical curriculum could further contribute to that. </sec>

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