Enhancing healthcare decision support through explainable AI models for risk prediction

Abstract

Electronic health records (EHRs) are a valuable source of information that can aid in understanding a patient’s health condition and making informed healthcare decisions. However, modelling longitudinal EHRs with heterogeneous information is a challenging task. Although recurrent neural networks (RNNs), which are current artificial intelligence (AI) models, have the capability to capture longitudinal information, their explanatory power is limited. Predictive clustering is a recent development in this field, which provides cluster-level explainable evidence for disease risk prediction. Nonetheless, the challenge of determining the optimal number of clusters has put a brake on the widespread application of predictive clustering for disease risk prediction. In this paper, we introduce a novel non-parametric predictive clustering-based risk prediction model that integrates the Dirichlet Process Mixture Model (DPMM) with predictive clustering via neural networks. To enhance the model’s interpretability, we integrate attention mechanisms that enable the capture of local-level evidence in addition to the cluster-level evidence provided by predictive clustering. The outcome of this research is the development of a multi-level explainable artificial intelligence (AI) model. We evaluated the proposed model on two real-world datasets and demonstrated its effectiveness in capturing longitudinal EHR information for disease risk prediction. Additionally, the model was successful in generating explainable evidence to support its predictions.

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