Will artificial intelligence challenge human in innovative works?– a perspective in environmental research

Abstract

Abstract Innovation has long been regarded as a uniquely human capability; however, the rapid development of generative artificial intelligence, particularly large language models such as ChatGPT, is increasingly challenging this assumption. Taking environmental research as an example, this study evaluates the innovation-like behavior of ChatGPT through a proxy task of predicting future research hotspots. Fed with 20 years of previous literature from a professional environmental journal, the optimal ChatGPT setup correctly predicted 80% of the hotspots in the next year, but the correct predictions highly relied on repeating existed keywords, reflecting the model’s ability to capture thematic continuity rather than genuine scientific innovation. Interestingly, sometimes it correctly predicted new words beyond the history hotspots list. The new words were found meaningful and hard to be deducted by existed keywords, which is seen as a weak signal of novelty generation. In conclusion, ChatGPT seems unable to substitute human beings in scientific innovation in its current state, but the capability it exhibited and the following ethics problems deserve to be carefully concerned in advance. Graphical Abstract

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